802 Jd Parham Dr

Manchester, GA 31816

$137,500C

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,095 sqft · Built 1946 · SingleFamily · Active · 284 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,413/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$721
• Tax + insurance: −$171
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$297
• Net cashflow: $225/mo
• Annual: $2,696/yr
• Cap rate: 8.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.00%
• DSCR: 1.31
• 1% rule: 1.03%
• Cash to close: $38,500

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $138k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $225 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $138k).
• It's been on market 284 days — a 12% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $121k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($951 loan paydown + $14k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#525 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Meriwether County (rural): math 18% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #144 of 174 in GA (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mountain View Elementary School (math 28% / reading 22%, grade F, #745 of 1,228 statewide, top 61%, 756 students, 99% FRL); Manchester Middle School (math 20% / reading 26%, grade F, #321 of 470 statewide, top 69%, 313 students, 96% FRL); Manchester High School (math 24% / reading 37%, grade F, #128 of 424 statewide, top 30%, 403 students, 96% FRL) — zoned schools average 97% FRL vs 71% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1946 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 47 active listings in the ZIP; 180 units permitted in Meriwether County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Meriwether County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $12k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $138k implies a 175% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 62% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 284 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1946 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.