3201 NE 223rd Ave #45

Fairview, OR 97024

$134,000B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Built 1995 · Manufactured · Pending · 87 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,207/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$703
• Tax + insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$463
• Net cashflow: $956/mo
• Annual: $11,469/yr
• Cap rate: 14.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.57%
• DSCR: 2.36
• 1% rule: 1.65%
• Cash to close: $37,520

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $134k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $956 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $134k).
• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $126k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $926 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#85 in OR, #4,103 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: cost of living D, amenities F.
• Reynolds SD 7 (suburban): math 21% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #162 of 183 in OR (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Fairview Elementary School (299 students, 98% FRL); Reynolds Middle School (837 students, 98% FRL); Reynolds High School (2,474 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools average 88% FRL vs 66% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 54 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,041 units permitted in Multnomah County in 2024 (905 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Multnomah County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 14.9% vs local median 2.8% in Fairview — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.