39 Ranch Dr

Camp Verde, AZ 86322

$199,500C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,423 sqft · Built 2022 · Manufactured · Pending · 38 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,989/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,046
• Tax + insurance: −$332
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$418
• Net cashflow: $193/mo
• Annual: $2,313/yr
• Cap rate: 7.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.14%
• DSCR: 1.18
• 1% rule: 1.00%
• Cash to close: $55,860

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $193 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (0.3% below list).
• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $194k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#77 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A, housing A, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Camp Verde Unified District (4470) (rural): math 20% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #176 of 249 in AZ (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Camp Verde Elementary School (math 24% / reading 31%, grade F, #592 of 1,109 statewide, top 54%, 679 students, 61% FRL); Camp Verde Middle School (math 21% / reading 27%, grade F, #109 of 218 statewide, top 51%, 365 students, 60% FRL); Camp Verde High School (math 8% / reading 2%, grade F, #364 of 381 statewide, top 100%, 488 students, 45% FRL).
• Market conditions: 143 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,062 units permitted in Yavapai County in 2024 (98 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Yavapai County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 2.9% in Camp Verde — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.