3 bd · 2.5 ba ·
1,550 sqft ·
Built 1978
· SingleFamily
· Under Contract
· 8 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,707/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$981
Tax + insurance
−$175
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$358
Net cashflow
$193/mo
Annual
$2,313/yr
Cap rate
7.53%
Cash-on-cash
4.42%
DSCR
1.20
1% rule
0.91%
Cash to close
$52,360
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $187k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $193 ($2k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $171k (8.7% below list).
Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Recommended offer: $171k (8.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 65/100 on livability (#227 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
Houston County (urban): math 43% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #23 of 174 in GA (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Russell Elementary School (math 51% / reading 41%, grade D-, #316 of 1,228 statewide, top 26%, 645 students, 84% FRL); Warner Robins Middle School (math 25% / reading 37%, grade F, #237 of 470 statewide, top 51%, 813 students, 84% FRL); Warner Robins High School (math 7% / reading 21%, grade F, #322 of 424 statewide, top 76%, 1,816 students, 84% FRL) — zoned schools average 84% FRL vs 46% district-wide (38 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 30% at this address vs 44% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 286 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,545 units permitted in Houston County in 2024 (336 in 5+ unit buildings).
Houston County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $135k; 39% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 76% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 4.9% in Warner Robins — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-MX9WV48AM2N1P5
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29