1731 Overlook Dr

Bear Creek Ranch, TX 75146

$325,000F

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,169 sqft · Built 2014 · SingleFamily · Active · 3 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,602/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax + insurance: −$861
• HOA: −$36
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$546
• Net cashflow: $-546/mo
• Annual: $-6,546/yr
• Cap rate: 4.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.19%
• DSCR: 0.68
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $91,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $325k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-546 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $229k (29.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $260k (19.9% below list).
• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $229k (29.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $12k appreciation (3.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lancaster ISD (suburban): math 19% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #714 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: West Main El (math 19% / reading 28%, grade F, #3,247 of 4,322 statewide, top 76%, 603 students, 85% FRL); Lancaster Middle (math 20% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,222 of 1,662 statewide, top 74%, 1,007 students, 84% FRL); Lancaster H S (math 14% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,333 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 2,250 students, 84% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 105 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 12,577 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Dallas County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 7 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $2,602/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($68k/yr) (locally 1462% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.