22797 Shadowpine Way

Novi, MI 48375

$410,000D+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 3,382 sqft · Built 1970 · SingleFamily · Pending · 27 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,121/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,150
• Tax + insurance: −$523
• HOA: −$27
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$655
• Net cashflow: $-234/mo
• Annual: $-2,808/yr
• Cap rate: 5.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.45%
• DSCR: 0.89
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $114,800

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $410k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-234 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $369k (10.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $312k (23.9% below list).
• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($404k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $312k (23.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#20 in MI, #377 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: commute F.
• Novi Community School District (urban): math 73% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #7 of 540 in MI (top 1%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 7% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 143 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,614 units permitted in Oakland County in 2024 (721 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Oakland County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 2.8% in Novi — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($113k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.