5 bd · 4.0 ba ·
2,954 sqft ·
Built 2026
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 38 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$3,523/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$2,326
Tax + insurance
−$739
HOA
−$88
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$740
Net cashflow
$-369/mo
Annual
$-4,432/yr
Cap rate
5.29%
Cash-on-cash
-3.57%
DSCR
0.84
1% rule
0.79%
Cash to close
$124,173
Investor read
This is a 5-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $443k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-369 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $390k (12.1% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $352k (20.6% below list).
It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($430k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $352k (20.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 80/100 on livability (#49 in TX, #1,954 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F.
Aledo ISD (rural): math 66% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #11 of 826 in TX (top 1%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.8%/yr); 826 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 437 units permitted in Parker County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Parker County population projected at +32% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.9% in Fort Worth — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-MYJWG1DZYZ8C59
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29