4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,802 sqft ·
Built 2025
· Land
· Pending
· 31 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,128/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,604
Tax + insurance
−$510
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$447
Net cashflow
$-433/mo
Annual
$-5,196/yr
Cap rate
4.59%
Cash-on-cash
-6.07%
DSCR
0.73
1% rule
0.70%
Cash to close
$85,652
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $306k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-433 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $243k (20.5% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $213k (30.4% below list).
It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($297k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $213k (30.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 80/100 on livability (#49 in TX, #1,954 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
Fort Worth ISD (urban): math 18% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #742 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Van Zandt-Guinn El (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,836 of 4,322 statewide, top 91%, 338 students, 97% FRL) — zoned schools average 97% FRL vs 73% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: Rents flat; 176 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 18,938 units permitted in Tarrant County in 2024 (8,336 in 5+ unit buildings).
Tarrant County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 6% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-MYSAKF6NW77C1Z
· Data 1 week agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29