4 bd · 1.0 ba ·
2,936 sqft ·
Built 1949
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 111 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,135/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,306
Tax + insurance
−$542
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$448
Net cashflow
$-161/mo
Annual
$-1,931/yr
Cap rate
5.52%
Cash-on-cash
-2.77%
DSCR
0.88
1% rule
0.86%
Cash to close
$69,720
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $249k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-161 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $221k (11.4% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $214k (14.2% below list).
It's been on market 111 days — a 9% lower offer ($227k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $214k (14.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 69/100 on livability (#445 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D, amenities F.
Lamesa ISD (town): math 19% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #755 of 826 in TX (top 91%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Watch-outs: built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 51 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in Dawson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 111 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
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· Data 43 min agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29