3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,618 sqft ·
Built 1963
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 115 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,591/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,390
Tax + insurance
−$516
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$544
Net cashflow
$141/mo
Annual
$1,695/yr
Cap rate
7.23%
Cash-on-cash
3.36%
DSCR
1.15
1% rule
0.98%
Cash to close
$74,200
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $265k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $141 ($2k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $259k (2.2% below list).
It's been on market 115 days — a 9% lower offer ($241k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $241k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 75/100 on livability (#252 in FL, #3,975 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
Market conditions: Rents flat; 857 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).
Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
3 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $44k; list at $265k implies a 496% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 3.6% in North Port — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $2,591/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($63k/yr) (locally 522% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 115 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
CashFlowRE · CFR-MZKT1F9AG66Z5D
· Data 1 week agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29