115 Willow Dr

Hemlock Farms, PA 18428

$339,000C

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,853 sqft · Built 1993 · SingleFamily · Active · 310 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,239/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,778
• Tax + insurance: −$533
• HOA: −$243
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$680
• Net cashflow: $5/mo
• Annual: $63/yr
• Cap rate: 6.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.07%
• DSCR: 1.00
• 1% rule: 0.96%
• Cash to close: $94,920

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $339k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5 ($63/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $324k (4.5% below list).
• It's been on market 310 days — a 12% lower offer ($298k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $298k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $36k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $34k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#884 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Wallenpaupack Area SD (rural): math 39% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #192 of 539 in PA (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 371 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 213 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pike County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 6 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $86k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $95k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$58k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 310 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.