2572 Wellesley Square Dr

Thompson's Station, TN 37179

$420,000D

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,636 sqft · Built 2017 · Other · Active · 53 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,944/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,203
• Tax + insurance: −$302
• HOA: −$285
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$618
• Net cashflow: $-464/mo
• Annual: $-5,568/yr
• Cap rate: 4.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.73%
• DSCR: 0.79
• 1% rule: 0.70%
• Cash to close: $117,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath other listed at $420k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-464 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $338k (19.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $294k (29.9% below list).
• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($407k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $294k (29.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Williamson County (rural): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #1 of 139 in TN (top 1%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Thompson'S Station Elementary School (math 63% / reading 55%, grade B-, #65 of 952 statewide, top 7%, 839 students, 0% FRL); Heritage Middle School (math 45% / reading 51%, grade C-, #23 of 333 statewide, top 7%, 842 students, 0% FRL); Independence High School (math 19% / reading 62%, grade F, #25 of 332 statewide, top 7%, 2,095 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.0%/yr); 355 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,994 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (637 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Williamson County population projected at +59% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $299k; 40% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 1.5% in Thompson's Station — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.