2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
900 sqft ·
Built 1951
· Condo
· Pending
· 190 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$3,107/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,547
Tax + insurance
−$492
HOA
−$1,051
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$652
Net cashflow
$-635/mo
Annual
$-7,624/yr
Cap rate
3.71%
Cash-on-cash
-9.23%
DSCR
0.59
1% rule
1.05%
Cash to close
$82,600
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $295k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-635 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $295k).
It's been on market 190 days — a 12% lower offer ($260k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $260k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 75/100 on livability (#271 in NY, #4,308 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
Irvington Union Free School District (suburban): math 83% / reading 89% proficiency, ranked #23 of 590 in NY (top 4%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 4% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
Zoned schools: Main Street School School (4-5) (math 80% / reading 83%, grade A+, #170 of 2,108 statewide, top 8%, 246 students, 5% FRL); Irvington Middle School (math 82% / reading 89%, grade A+, #11 of 729 statewide, top 1%, 426 students, 9% FRL); Irvington High School (math 98% / reading 98%, grade A+, #19 of 1,100 statewide, top 4%, 548 students, 10% FRL) — zoned schools at 8% FRL track the district average.
Watch-outs: HOA is 34% of rent; built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 80 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 954 units permitted in Westchester County in 2024 (649 in 5+ unit buildings).
Westchester County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
3 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $239k; 23% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 3.7% vs local median 2.5% in Irvington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 190 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
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