12035 Tracy Ln

Peyton, CO 80831

$275,000C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,552 sqft · Built 1980 · Manufactured · Pending · 332 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,602/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax + insurance: −$205
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$546
• Net cashflow: $408/mo
• Annual: $4,893/yr
• Cap rate: 8.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.35%
• DSCR: 1.28
• 1% rule: 0.95%
• Cash to close: $77,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $275k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $408 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $260k (5.4% below list).
• It's been on market 332 days — a 12% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $242k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 39/100 on livability (#444 in CO) — a limited-amenity area; tenant pool skews transient or value-seeking. Strengths: schools A, crime A, cost of living B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Peyton School District No. 23 In The County Of El Paso And (rural): math 40% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #24 of 176 in CO (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 513 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 3,906 units permitted in El Paso County in 2024 (872 in 5+ unit buildings).
• El Paso County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $75k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $114k; list at $275k implies a 140% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 3.3% in Peyton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 332 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.