3571 Carpenter Cir

Bridge City, TX 77630

$66,000B+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · Built 1999 · SingleFamily · Pending · 104 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,078/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$346
• Tax + insurance: −$696
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$226
• Net cashflow: $-191/mo
• Annual: $-2,286/yr
• Cap rate: 10.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.33%
• DSCR: 1.68
• 1% rule: 1.63%
• Cash to close: $18,480

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $66k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-191 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $58k (12.1% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $66k).
• It's been on market 104 days — a 9% lower offer ($60k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $58k (12.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($456 loan paydown + $667 appreciation (1.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#251 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Bridge City ISD (other): math 41% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #224 of 826 in TX (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Bridge City El (843 students, 50% FRL); Bridge City Middle (math 34% / reading 46%, grade F, #646 of 1,662 statewide, top 40%, 695 students, 40% FRL); Bridge City H S (math 42% / reading 66%, grade C-, #422 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 894 students, 34% FRL) — zoned schools at 41% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.4% of price; flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.7%/yr); 339 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 235 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Orange County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 4 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.6% vs local median 2.2% in Bridge City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 104 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.