217 Old Mill Rd

Dardanelle, AR 72834

$52,000B-

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,368 sqft · Built 1976 · SingleFamily · Pending · 15 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $750/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$273
• Tax + insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$158
• Net cashflow: $250/mo
• Annual: $2,996/yr
• Cap rate: 12.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.57%
• DSCR: 1.92
• 1% rule: 1.44%
• Cash to close: $14,560

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $52k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $250 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($750 rent vs $52k).
• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($51k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $51k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $360 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#56 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Dardanelle School District (town): math 44% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #52 of 238 in AR (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 90 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 10 units permitted in Yell County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Yell County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 12.1% vs local median 3.1% in Dardanelle — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.