2610 S Lilac St

Ozark, MO 65721

$265,000F

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 920 sqft · Built 1995 · Other · Pending · 3 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,742/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax + insurance: −$224
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$366
• Net cashflow: $-238/mo
• Annual: $-2,852/yr
• Cap rate: 5.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.84%
• DSCR: 0.83
• 1% rule: 0.66%
• Cash to close: $74,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath other listed at $265k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-238 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $223k (15.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $174k (34.3% below list).
• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $174k (34.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#94 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Ozark R-VI (rural): math 60% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #10 of 324 in MO (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: South Elem. (math 59% / reading 63%, grade B, #114 of 1,115 statewide, top 10%, 524 students, 44% FRL); Ozark Jr. High (math 54% / reading 59%, grade B, #38 of 391 statewide, top 10%, 946 students, 37% FRL); Ozark High (math 47% / reading 64%, grade C, #64 of 521 statewide, top 12%, 1,838 students, 33% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.3%/yr); 379 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 537 units permitted in Christian County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Christian County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 2.8% in Ozark — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.