530 Auburn St

Allentown, PA 18103

$199,900C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,540 sqft · Built 1875 · Townhouse · Active · 9 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,080/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax + insurance: −$274
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$437
• Net cashflow: $321/mo
• Annual: $3,858/yr
• Cap rate: 8.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.89%
• DSCR: 1.31
• 1% rule: 1.04%
• Cash to close: $55,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $321 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#171 in PA, #1,440 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D.
• Allentown City SD (urban): math 10% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #513 of 539 in PA (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Jefferson El Sch (math 8%, 524 students, 100% FRL); South Mountain Ms (math 3% / reading 15%, grade F, #502 of 512 statewide, top 98%, 1,007 students, 100% FRL); William Allen Hs (math 29% / reading 10%, grade F, #392 of 437 statewide, top 90%, 2,852 students, 87% FRL) — zoned schools average 96% FRL vs 73% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1875 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.0%/yr); 165 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 765 units permitted in Lehigh County in 2024 (286 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lehigh County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $200k implies a 344% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 5.2% in Allentown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($73k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1875 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.