516 N Mill St

Festus, MO 63028

$179,900D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Built 1939 · Other · Active · 22 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,488/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax + insurance: −$194
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$313
• Net cashflow: $38/mo
• Annual: $460/yr
• Cap rate: 6.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.91%
• DSCR: 1.04
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $50,372

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $180k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $38 ($460/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $149k (17.3% below list).
• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($177k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $149k (17.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#182 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Festus R-VI (suburban): math 55% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #16 of 324 in MO (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Festus Elem. (math 73% / reading 73%, grade A, #16 of 1,115 statewide, top 2%, 1,039 students, 36% FRL); Festus Intermediate (math 57% / reading 65%, grade B+, #17 of 391 statewide, top 5%, 745 students, 40% FRL); Festus Sr. High (math 37% / reading 60%, grade D, #147 of 521 statewide, top 29%, 979 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools at 37% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1939 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 173 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 807 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 6 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.6% in Festus — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1939 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.