1055 Park Ln

Shafter, CA 93263

$169,999C-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 908 sqft · Built 1939 · SingleFamily · Active · 110 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,583/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax + insurance: −$174
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$332
• Net cashflow: $185/mo
• Annual: $2,222/yr
• Cap rate: 7.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.67%
• DSCR: 1.21
• 1% rule: 0.93%
• Cash to close: $47,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $185 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $158k (6.9% below list).
• It's been on market 110 days — a 9% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $155k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#185 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, commute D+, cost of living D+.
• Richland Union Elementary (town): math 11% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #480 of 517 in CA (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Sequoia Elementary (math 12% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,304 of 1,571 statewide, top 84%, 585 students, 86% FRL); Richland Junior High (math 13% / reading 29%, grade F, #408 of 498 statewide, top 82%, 589 students, 82% FRL); Shafter High (reading 75%, 1,651 students, 85% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1939 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 178 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $29k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $67k; list at $170k implies a 154% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 2.7% in Shafter — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 110 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1939 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.