1110 Woodburn Allen Springs Rd

Woodburn, KY 42170

$51,700F

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,244 sqft · Built 1950 · SingleFamily · Active · 39 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,123/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,342
• Tax + insurance: −$426
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$236
• Net cashflow: $-881/mo
• Annual: $-10,576/yr
• Cap rate: 2.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.76%
• DSCR: 0.34
• 1% rule: 0.44%
• Cash to close: $71,651

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $52k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-881 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $52k).
• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($50k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $50k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#189 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Warren County (rural): math 30% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #48 of 165 in KY (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Rich Pond Elementary (math 34% / reading 54%, grade F, #161 of 676 statewide, top 24%, 876 students, 45% FRL); South Warren Middle School (math 48% / reading 57%, grade C+, #16 of 217 statewide, top 7%, 772 students, 42% FRL); South Warren High School (math 45% / reading 56%, grade D+, #10 of 254 statewide, top 4%, 1,494 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools at 41% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 49% at this address vs 36% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Warren County average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 7.4% of price; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 7 active listings in the ZIP; 2,286 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (1,410 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Warren County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 2.2% vs local median 1.7% in Woodburn — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.