Plan 2246 Plan

New Caney, TX 77357

$237,995F

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,246 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 214 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,742/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,586
• Tax + insurance: −$504
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$366
• Net cashflow: $-714/mo
• Annual: $-8,574/yr
• Cap rate: 3.46%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.12%
• DSCR: 0.55
• 1% rule: 0.58%
• Cash to close: $84,705

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $238k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-714 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $199k (16.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $174k (26.8% below list).
• It's been on market 214 days — a 12% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $174k (26.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• New Caney ISD (suburban): math 31% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #570 of 826 in TX (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1516 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.5% vs local median 4.7% in New Caney — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 214 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.