5209 Irola Dr

Schertz, TX 78108

$200,000F

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 696 sqft · Built 2024 · Manufactured · Active · 87 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,352/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax + insurance: −$505
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$284
• Net cashflow: $-486/mo
• Annual: $-5,832/yr
• Cap rate: 3.38%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.41%
• DSCR: 0.54
• 1% rule: 0.68%
• Cash to close: $56,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-486 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $114k (42.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $135k (32.4% below list).
• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($188k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $114k (42.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $941 appreciation (0.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#198 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Schertz-Cibolo-U City ISD (suburban): math 49% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #152 of 826 in TX (top 18%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Green Valley El (math 41% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,283 of 4,322 statewide, top 30%, 587 students, 35% FRL); Ray D Corbett J H (math 52% / reading 49%, grade C, #333 of 1,662 statewide, top 21%, 1,188 students, 40% FRL); Samuel Clemens H S (math 45% / reading 60%, grade C-, #444 of 1,632 statewide, top 27%, 2,544 students, 30% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 773 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent is only 14% of the median local income ($113k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 43% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.