3939 Ocean Dr Unit 208C

Vero Beach, FL 32963

$425,000C-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · Built 1977 · Townhouse · Active · 6 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,966/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,229
• Tax + insurance: −$818
• HOA: −$1,213
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,043
• Net cashflow: $-336/mo
• Annual: $-4,032/yr
• Cap rate: 5.53%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.72%
• DSCR: 0.88
• 1% rule: 1.17%
• Cash to close: $119,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $425k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-336 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $366k (14.0% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $425k).
• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $366k (14.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#116 in FL, #1,784 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities D.
• Indian River (other): math 48% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #35 of 73 in FL (top 48%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Beachland Elementary School (math 54% / reading 58%, grade C+, #832 of 2,144 statewide, top 40%, 523 students, 39% FRL); Gifford Middle School (math 46% / reading 45%, grade D+, #305 of 571 statewide, top 54%, 582 students, 72% FRL); Vero Beach High School (math 28% / reading 43%, grade F, #367 of 667 statewide, top 57%, 2,847 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools at 54% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; HOA is 24% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.0%/yr); 501 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 564 units permitted in Indian River County in 2024 (281 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Indian River County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask is 13181% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $300k; 42% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 2.8% in Vero Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($150k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.