3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
950 sqft ·
Built 1962
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 78 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,329/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$445
Tax + insurance
−$192
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$279
Net cashflow
$413/mo
Annual
$4,958/yr
Cap rate
12.13%
Cash-on-cash
20.86%
DSCR
1.93
1% rule
1.57%
Cash to close
$23,772
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $85k. Condition is rated average.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $413 ($5k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($80k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $80k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $4k of equity ($587 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
Location reads 66/100 on livability (#239 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D-, amenities F.
Hazelwood (suburban): math 11% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #306 of 324 in MO (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Zoned schools: Keeven Elem. (math 2% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,037 of 1,115 statewide, top 94%, 267 students, 99% FRL); East Middle (math 8% / reading 27%, grade F, #354 of 391 statewide, top 91%, 172 students, 98% FRL); Hazelwood East High (math 5% / reading 21%, grade F, #495 of 521 statewide, top 95%, 1,264 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 88% FRL vs 53% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 489 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 64d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 80% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
At projected returns (3.8% appreciation + 5.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 12.1% vs local median 9.7% in Dellwood — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($41k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Moderate: exterior paint
— Weathered and discolored brick
Moderate: hardwood flooring
— Worn and could benefit from refinishing
Minor: interior paint
— Faded in some areas
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· Data 19 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29