5226 Island View Cir N

Polk City, FL 33868

$250,000D

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,536 sqft · Built 1997 · Manufactured · Active · 105 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,200/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax + insurance: −$339
• HOA: −$100
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $-12/mo
• Annual: $-145/yr
• Cap rate: 6.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.21%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $70,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath manufactured listed at $250k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-12 ($-145/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $248k (0.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (12.0% below list).
• It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($228k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $220k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#501 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 422 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $145k; list at $250k implies a 72% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?