15823 Old Beechwood Rd SW

Lonaconing, MD 21539

$119,000C

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,912 sqft · Built 1920 · SingleFamily · Under Contract · 34 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,277/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax + insurance: −$225
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$268
• Net cashflow: $159/mo
• Annual: $1,908/yr
• Cap rate: 8.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.73%
• DSCR: 1.34
• 1% rule: 1.07%
• Cash to close: $33,320

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $119k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $159 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $119k).
• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($115k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $115k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.9%/yr); year-one equity from $823 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#287 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Allegany County Public Schools (other): math 15% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #18 of 24 in MD (top 75%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: George'S Creek Elementary (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #614 of 860 statewide, top 75%, 268 students, 68% FRL); Westmar Middle (math 6% / reading 30%, grade F, #165 of 225 statewide, top 75%, 232 students, 70% FRL); Mountain Ridge High School (math 32% / reading 72%, grade D+, #100 of 222 statewide, top 47%, 736 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools average 62% FRL vs 47% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP; 24 units permitted in Allegany County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Allegany County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $24k; list at $119k implies a 396% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.