7407 Moonlight Dr

Montgomery, AL 36117

$290,000D-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,135 sqft · Built 2007 · SingleFamily · Pending · 56 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,141/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax + insurance: −$241
• HOA: −$3
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$450
• Net cashflow: $-74/mo
• Annual: $-885/yr
• Cap rate: 5.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.09%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $81,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $290k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-74 ($-885/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $277k (4.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $214k (26.2% below list).
• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $214k (26.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#138 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities D-.
• Montgomery County (urban): math 9% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #106 of 129 in AL (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Garrett Elementary School (math 2% / reading 27%, grade F, #508 of 627 statewide, top 84%, 564 students, 68% FRL); Park Crossing High School (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #169 of 305 statewide, top 59%, 906 students, 53% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 409 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 460 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (37 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Montgomery County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 5 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.