27227 Diamond Peak Ln #302

Stevenson Ranch, CA 91381

$572,000D+

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,489 sqft · Built 2024 · Condo · Active · 130 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $6,691/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,000
• Tax + insurance: −$953
• HOA: −$1,710
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,405
• Net cashflow: $-377/mo
• Annual: $-4,524/yr
• Cap rate: 5.50%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.82%
• DSCR: 0.87
• 1% rule: 1.17%
• Cash to close: $160,160

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath condo listed at $572k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-377 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $517k (9.5% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($7k rent vs $572k).
• It's been on market 130 days — a 12% lower offer ($503k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $503k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.1%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#156 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, employment A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities D, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• William S. Hart Union High (suburban): math 52% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #155 of 1,400 in CA (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 26% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 253 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $58k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 2.9% in Stevenson Ranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $6,691/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($159k/yr) (locally 651% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 130 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?