515 Gabriel Cir #1901

Naples, FL 34104

$289,900D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,406 sqft · Built 1992 · Condo · Active · 75 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,141/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,520
• Tax + insurance: −$483
• HOA: −$547
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$660
• Net cashflow: $-69/mo
• Annual: $-825/yr
• Cap rate: 6.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.02%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 1.08%
• Cash to close: $81,172

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $290k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-69 ($-825/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $280k (3.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $290k).
• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($273k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $273k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#126 in FL, #1,903 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, employment A+; Watch: commute D+, cost of living F.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Calusa Park Elementary School (math 59% / reading 56%, grade C+, #764 of 2,144 statewide, top 36%, 707 students, 62% FRL); East Naples Middle School (math 56% / reading 44%, grade C, #254 of 571 statewide, top 45%, 854 students, 63% FRL); Golden Gate High School (math 38% / reading 39%, grade F, #321 of 667 statewide, top 49%, 1,764 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 438 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→31/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $3,141/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($72k/yr) (locally 1423% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?