2 bd · 2.5 ba ·
1,185 sqft ·
Built 1983
· Condo
· Active
· 122 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,280/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,342
Tax + insurance
−$426
HOA
−$72
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$479
Net cashflow
$-39/mo
Annual
$-469/yr
Cap rate
6.11%
Cash-on-cash
-0.65%
DSCR
0.97
1% rule
0.89%
Cash to close
$71,652
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $256k. Condition is rated good.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-39 ($-469/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $250k (2.2% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $228k (10.9% below list).
It's been on market 122 days — a 12% lower offer ($225k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $225k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $4k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (0.9% local appreciation)).
Location reads 66/100 on livability (#625 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A-, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
Llano ISD (town): math 40% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #359 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Llano El (math 52% / reading 52%, grade C-, #742 of 4,322 statewide, top 19%, 366 students, 62% FRL); Llano J H (math 42% / reading 45%, grade D, #530 of 1,662 statewide, top 32%, 423 students, 65% FRL); Llano H S (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 552 students, 60% FRL).
Market conditions: 1406 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 62d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 121 units permitted in Llano County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Llano County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 56% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 1.2% in Horseshoe Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 122 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-N6V0YPF55R6VT3
· Data 13 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29