703 Main St

Yoncalla, OR 97499

$172,250C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Built 1990 · SingleFamily · Pending · 181 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,322/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$903
• Tax + insurance: −$198
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$278
• Net cashflow: $-57/mo
• Annual: $-678/yr
• Cap rate: 5.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.41%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.77%
• Cash to close: $48,230

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $172k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-57 ($-678/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $162k (5.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $132k (23.2% below list).
• It's been on market 181 days — a 12% lower offer ($152k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $132k (23.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#166 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Yoncalla SD 32 (rural): math 20% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #152 of 183 in OR (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 27 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 190 units permitted in Douglas County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Douglas County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $24k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (3.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 181 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.