432 Warm Heron Pl

Ruskin, FL 33570

$324,990F

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,665 sqft · Built 2026 · Land · Active · 54 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,451/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax + insurance: −$542
• HOA: −$81
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$515
• Net cashflow: $-390/mo
• Annual: $-4,686/yr
• Cap rate: 4.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.15%
• DSCR: 0.77
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $90,997

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $325k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-390 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $268k (17.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $245k (24.6% below list).
• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($315k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $245k (24.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#392 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute B+; Watch: amenities F, health & safety F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Thompson Elementary (math 42% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,454 of 2,144 statewide, top 69%, 744 students, 69% FRL); Shields Middle School (math 29% / reading 27%, grade F, #486 of 571 statewide, top 86%, 1,867 students, 68% FRL); Lennard High School (math 30% / reading 46%, grade F, #328 of 667 statewide, top 50%, 2,404 students, 47% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 36% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Hillsborough average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 497 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $27k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.