17809 Lionheart Rd

Deerwood, TX 77306

$302,100F

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,439 sqft · Built 2026 · Land · Active · 60 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,055/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,584
• Tax + insurance: −$504
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$432
• Net cashflow: $-464/mo
• Annual: $-5,570/yr
• Cap rate: 4.45%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.58%
• DSCR: 0.71
• 1% rule: 0.68%
• Cash to close: $84,588

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $302k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-464 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $235k (22.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $206k (32.0% below list).
• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($293k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $206k (32.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 414 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.