2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
969 sqft ·
Built 1938
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 34 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,453/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$891
Tax + insurance
−$151
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$305
Net cashflow
$106/mo
Annual
$1,273/yr
Cap rate
7.04%
Cash-on-cash
2.68%
DSCR
1.12
1% rule
0.86%
Cash to close
$47,572
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $106 ($1k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $145k (14.5% below list).
It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $145k (14.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $8k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (4.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 62/100 on livability (#451 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
Randolph County School System (rural): math 43% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #94 of 178 in NC (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Watch-outs: built in 1938 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP; 789 units permitted in Randolph County in 2024 (168 in 5+ unit buildings).
Randolph County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
3 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $97k; list at $170k implies a 75% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (4.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 25% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1938 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-N8945FBQ32EX2M
· Data 1 week agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29