1273 Jonas Flaggs Rd

Utica, MS 39066

$125,000D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 972 sqft · Built 1985 · SingleFamily · Active · 164 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $939/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax + insurance: −$111
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$197
• Net cashflow: $-24/mo
• Annual: $-294/yr
• Cap rate: 6.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.84%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $35,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-24 ($-294/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $121k (3.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $94k (24.9% below list).
• It's been on market 164 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $94k (24.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (6.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#294 in MS) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Hinds County School District (rural): math 25% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #70 of 130 in MS (top 54%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP; 167 units permitted in Hinds County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hinds County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $19k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (6.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 164 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.