105 W Spruce St

Shelbina, MO 63468

$195,900D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,818 sqft · Built 1910 · Other · Active · 40 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,422/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,027
• Tax + insurance: −$168
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$299
• Net cashflow: $-72/mo
• Annual: $-861/yr
• Cap rate: 5.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.57%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $54,852

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $196k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-72 ($-861/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $183k (6.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $142k (27.4% below list).
• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($190k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $142k (27.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $13k appreciation (6.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#188 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Shelby County R-IV (rural): math 29% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #224 of 324 in MO (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: South Shelby Elementary (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #481 of 1,115 statewide, top 46%, 294 students, 56% FRL); South Shelby Middle School (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #243 of 391 statewide, top 65%, 151 students, 54% FRL); South Shelby High (math 12% / reading 42%, grade F, #420 of 521 statewide, top 82%, 248 students, 48% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Shelby County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Shelby County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (6.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $55k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.