1655 S Elm St #302

Canby, OR 97013

$189,000F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,188 sqft · Built 1997 · Condo · Active · 44 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,964/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax + insurance: −$172
• HOA: −$999
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$412
• Net cashflow: $-610/mo
• Annual: $-7,324/yr
• Cap rate: 2.42%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.84%
• DSCR: 0.38
• 1% rule: 1.04%
• Cash to close: $52,920

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $189k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-610 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $189k).
• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($183k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $183k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#43 in OR, #1,056 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D-.
• Canby SD 86 (town): math 36% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #14 of 58 in OR (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Philander Lee Elementary School (math 10% / reading 44%, grade F, #288 of 412 statewide, top 73%, 316 students, 37% FRL); Baker Prairie Middle School (math 42% / reading 54%, grade C-, #30 of 128 statewide, top 23%, 557 students, 33% FRL); Canby High School (math 75% / reading 75%, grade A-, #2 of 143 statewide, top 6%, 1,393 students, 27% FRL).
• Watch-outs: HOA is 51% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 168 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 946 units permitted in Clackamas County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Clackamas County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $73k; list at $189k implies a 159% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.