NHN Farm to Market Rd

Kalispell, MT 59901

$155,000B

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,953 sqft · Built 2001 · Land · Active · 38 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,499/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax + insurance: −$258
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$525
• Net cashflow: $903/mo
• Annual: $10,838/yr
• Cap rate: 13.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.97%
• DSCR: 2.11
• 1% rule: 1.61%
• Cash to close: $43,400

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $155k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $903 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $150k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#61 in MT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living A, housing A-; Watch: crime C-, commute F, employment D-.
• Flathead H S (town): math 29% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #55 of 116 in MT (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 683 active listings in the ZIP; 281 units permitted in Flathead County in 2024 (80 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Flathead County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 21 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.4% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 13.3% vs local median 2.1% in Kalispell — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($73k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.