13346 Holly St

Searles Valley, CA 93562

$129,999B-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,401 sqft · Built 1943 · SingleFamily · Active · 113 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,463/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax + insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$307
• Net cashflow: $339/mo
• Annual: $4,066/yr
• Cap rate: 9.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.17%
• DSCR: 1.50
• 1% rule: 1.13%
• Cash to close: $36,400

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $339 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $130k).
• It's been on market 113 days — a 9% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $118k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($899 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#500 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Trona Joint Unified (rural): math 25% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #1,004 of 1,400 in CA (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Trona Elementary (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,340 of 1,571 statewide, top 88%, 131 students, 71% FRL); Trona High (math 5% / reading 34%, grade F, #987 of 1,170 statewide, top 86%, 116 students, 76% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 18% at this address vs 32% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Trona Joint Unified average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: built in 1943 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 55 active listings in the ZIP; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $130k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 113 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1943 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.