5834 N Scottsdale Rd

Scottsdale, AZ 85253

$640,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,184 sqft · Built 1972 · Townhouse · Active · 157 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,146/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,356
• Tax + insurance: −$405
• HOA: −$286
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$661
• Net cashflow: $-1,562/mo
• Annual: $-18,740/yr
• Cap rate: 3.36%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.46%
• DSCR: 0.53
• 1% rule: 0.49%
• Cash to close: $179,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $640k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-19k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $364k (43.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $315k (50.8% below list).
• It's been on market 157 days — a 12% lower offer ($563k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $315k (50.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $68k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $64k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#4 in AZ, #1,756 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living F.
• Scottsdale Unified District (4240) (urban): math 53% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #30 of 249 in AZ (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Cheyenne Traditional School (math 78% / reading 75%, grade A, #24 of 1,109 statewide, top 2%, 880 students, 4% FRL); Mohave Middle School (math 45% / reading 48%, grade D+, #43 of 218 statewide, top 20%, 799 students, 31% FRL); Saguaro High School (math 37% / reading 41%, grade F, #78 of 381 statewide, top 20%, 1,466 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools at 20% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.6%/yr); 358 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $56k; list at $640k implies a 1052% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$110k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.4% vs local median 2.5% in Scottsdale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 157 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 51% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?