Haven TH Plan

Greensboro, NC 27405

$229,900D

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,651 sqft · Built — · Townhouse · Active · 155 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,220/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax + insurance: −$417
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$466
• Net cashflow: $26/mo
• Annual: $316/yr
• Cap rate: 6.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.45%
• DSCR: 1.02
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $69,999

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $230k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $26 ($316/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $222k (3.4% below list).
• It's been on market 155 days — a 12% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $202k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#12 in NC, #1,335 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment D, crime F.
• Guilford County Schools (urban): math 39% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #99 of 178 in NC (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mcleansville Elementary (math 42% / reading 32%, grade F, #771 of 1,410 statewide, top 57%, 330 students, 99% FRL); Eastern Guilford Middle (math 26% / reading 38%, grade F, #317 of 475 statewide, top 68%, 980 students, 75% FRL); Eastern Guilford High (math 25% / reading 37%, grade F, #454 of 535 statewide, top 85%, 1,198 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools average 81% FRL vs 52% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.8%/yr); 611 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,843 units permitted in Guilford County in 2024 (2,397 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Guilford County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.0% in Greensboro — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,220/mo this rent would consume 56% of the median local household income ($47k/yr) (locally 18% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 155 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.