4378 Aqua Vista Dr Unit L

Orlando, FL 32839

$74,000D+

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 642 sqft · Built 1976 · Condo · Active · 253 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,200/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$388
• Tax + insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$518
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$252
• Net cashflow: $-81/mo
• Annual: $-976/yr
• Cap rate: 4.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.71%
• DSCR: 0.79
• 1% rule: 1.62%
• Cash to close: $20,720

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $74k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-81 ($-976/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $62k (15.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $74k).
• It's been on market 253 days — a 12% lower offer ($65k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $62k (15.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $512 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#12 in FL, #360 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Orange (suburban): math 46% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #43 of 73 in FL (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Catalina Elementary (math 35% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,862 of 2,144 statewide, top 88%, 612 students, 82% FRL); Memorial Middle (math 29% / reading 30%, grade F, #469 of 571 statewide, top 84%, 944 students, 75% FRL); Oak Ridge High (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #544 of 667 statewide, top 82%, 2,477 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 56% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 27% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-21 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Orange average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 43% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 351 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 30d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 8,053 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,133 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Orange County population projected at +52% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.1% in Orlando — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($47k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 253 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?