275 5th Ave

Shepherdsville, KY 40165

$210,000C+

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,131 sqft · Built 1997 · SingleFamily · Active · 48 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,205/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax + insurance: −$630
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$463
• Net cashflow: $11/mo
• Annual: $129/yr
• Cap rate: 8.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.92%
• DSCR: 1.40
• 1% rule: 1.05%
• Cash to close: $58,800

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $11 ($129/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $210k).
• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($204k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $204k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#119 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Bullitt County (suburban): math 29% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #55 of 165 in KY (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Cedar Grove Elementary (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #208 of 676 statewide, top 34%, 406 students, 47% FRL); Bernheim Middle School (math 28% / reading 44%, grade F, #91 of 217 statewide, top 43%, 435 students, 52% FRL); Bullitt Central High School (math 28% / reading 25%, grade F, #174 of 254 statewide, top 69%, 1,363 students, 53% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: 270 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 380 units permitted in Bullitt County in 2024 (8 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bullitt County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 95790% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $126k; list at $210k implies a 67% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 3.5% in Shepherdsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.