6915 Ortega Woods Dr #3-12

Jacksonville, FL 32244

$128,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,118 sqft · Built 2009 · Condo · Active · 132 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,438/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$671
• Tax + insurance: −$225
• HOA: −$300
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$302
• Net cashflow: $-60/mo
• Annual: $-723/yr
• Cap rate: 5.73%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.02%
• DSCR: 0.91
• 1% rule: 1.12%
• Cash to close: $35,840

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $128k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-60 ($-723/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $117k (8.3% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $128k).
• It's been on market 132 days — a 12% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $113k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $885 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Timucuan Elementary School (math 34% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,951 of 2,144 statewide, top 91%, 491 students, 77% FRL); Westside Middle School (math 25% / reading 22%, grade F, #536 of 571 statewide, top 95%, 593 students, 70% FRL); Westside High School (math 26% / reading 19%, grade F, #539 of 667 statewide, top 81%, 1,583 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 49% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 25% at this address vs 46% district-wide (-21 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Duval average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 21% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 353 active listings in the ZIP; 35 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $7k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.9% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 132 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?