4710 Pilgrims Way W

Estero, FL 33928

$115,000B-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 449 sqft · Built 1987 · Manufactured · Active · 67 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,709/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax + insurance: −$591
• HOA: −$287
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$359
• Net cashflow: $-132/mo
• Annual: $-1,578/yr
• Cap rate: 9.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.99%
• DSCR: 1.49
• 1% rule: 1.49%
• Cash to close: $32,200

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $115k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-132 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $92k (20.2% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).
• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $92k (20.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#149 in FL, #2,242 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living D-.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.4%/yr); 674 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $58k; list at $115k implies a 98% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 8→32/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 3.4% in Estero — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.