19 Lockman Rd

Maggie Valley, NC 28751

$319,500D-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 972 sqft · Built 1960 · SingleFamily · Active · 363 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,500/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,675
• Tax + insurance: −$264
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$525
• Net cashflow: $36/mo
• Annual: $429/yr
• Cap rate: 6.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.23%
• DSCR: 1.05
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $89,460

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $320k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $36 ($429/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $250k (21.8% below list).
• It's been on market 363 days — a 12% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $250k (21.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#701 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Haywood County Schools (suburban): math 55% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #50 of 178 in NC (top 28%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Jonathan Valley Elementary (math 52% / reading 47%, grade D, #417 of 1,410 statewide, top 32%, 378 students, 99% FRL); Tuscola High (math 57% / reading 60%, grade C, #235 of 535 statewide, top 45%, 917 students, 49% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 49% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Market conditions: 243 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 537 units permitted in Haywood County in 2024 (150 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $225k; 42% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 2.3% in Maggie Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 363 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?