5573 Fairfax Ln

Garden City, ID 83714-6047

$90,000B-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 938 sqft · Built 1979 · Manufactured · Active · 111 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,585/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax + insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$333
• Net cashflow: $630/mo
• Annual: $7,566/yr
• Cap rate: 14.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.02%
• DSCR: 2.34
• 1% rule: 1.76%
• Cash to close: $25,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $630 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• It's been on market 111 days — a 9% lower offer ($82k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $82k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($622 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#11 in ID, #1,264 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: crime F.
• Boise Independent District (urban): math 42% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #36 of 92 in ID (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Capital Senior High School (math 34% / reading 57%, grade D-, #59 of 169 statewide, top 35%, 1,220 students, 28% FRL).
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,129 units permitted in Ada County in 2024 (414 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ada County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (28%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 14.7% vs local median 2.5% in Garden City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 111 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.