1 bd · 1.0 ba ·
650 sqft ·
Built 2018
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 72 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$944/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$367
Tax + insurance
−$116
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$198
Net cashflow
$263/mo
Annual
$3,152/yr
Cap rate
10.80%
Cash-on-cash
16.10%
DSCR
1.72
1% rule
1.35%
Cash to close
$19,572
Investor read
This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k. Condition is rated fair.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $263 ($3k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($944 rent vs $70k).
It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $66k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $483 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 68/100 on livability (#81 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D-, amenities F.
Lake Hamilton School District (rural): math 41% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #54 of 238 in AR (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.4%/yr); 981 active listings in the ZIP; 117 units permitted in Garland County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).
Garland County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.4% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 10.8% vs local median 1.4% in Rockwell — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Major: siding
— The siding is peeling and needs replacement.
Major: foundation
— The foundation is visibly settling and needs repair.
Major: HVAC system
— No visible HVAC system, indicating a need for replacement or repair.
Major: electrical panel
— Exposed electrical panel indicates potential electrical issues that need addressing.
Minor: windows
— The windows need cleaning and minor repairs to the frames.
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· Data 3 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29