5 bd · 3.0 ba ·
3,196 sqft ·
Built 1915
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 904 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,420/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$472
Tax + insurance
−$100
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$298
Net cashflow
$550/mo
Annual
$6,603/yr
Cap rate
13.63%
Cash-on-cash
26.20%
DSCR
2.17
1% rule
1.58%
Cash to close
$25,200
Investor read
This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $550 ($7k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
It's been on market 904 days — a 12% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $79k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 77/100 on livability (#32 in MO, #3,045 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, schools D-, amenities F.
Moberly (town): math 30% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #246 of 324 in MO (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Watch-outs: built in 1915 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 136 active listings in the ZIP; 25 units permitted in Randolph County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Randolph County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
7 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $50k; list at $90k implies a 80% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Cap rate 13.6% vs local median 4.5% in Moberly — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 904 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1915 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-NCR03J9HQ02SVM
· Data 15 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29